--- title: CrestCast™ | Regime-Informed Index Sleeves | Passive 3.0® description: Two regime-informed building blocks — a growth sleeve and a stability sleeve — carrying macro-regime intelligence with no signal, no rotation, no timing. This is Passive 3.0®. --- [Skip to content](https://intervallumtech.com#main-content) ![Intervallum Logo](https://intervallumtech.com/hs-fs/hubfs/Screenshot%202025-06-23%20at%2010.38.39%20AM.png?width=200&height=50&name=Screenshot%202025-06-23%20at%2010.38.39%20AM.png) - [Why CrestCast](https://intervallumtech.com/#section-2) - [Explore Research](https://intervallumtech.com/#section-7) - [Insights & Validation](https://intervallumtech.com/#section-9) - [Partner With Us](https://intervallumtech.com/#section-10) Open main navigation Close main navigation - [Why CrestCast](https://intervallumtech.com/#section-2) - [Explore Research](https://intervallumtech.com/#section-7) - [Insights & Validation](https://intervallumtech.com/#section-9) - [Partner With Us](https://intervallumtech.com/#section-10) - [Contact us](https://intervallumtech.com/contact) [Contact us](https://intervallumtech.com/contact?hsLang=en) # Introducing CrestCast®  ## Low-Vol+ · Core+ · Momentum+ ## **One Architecture** CrestCast combines two independently designed, regime-informed building blocks — Growth and Stability — to create a continuous range of equity portfolios. Blend them differently and the same architecture can power three familiar portfolio roles: **Low-Vol+**, **Core+**, and **Momentum+**. Built for ETF productization across U.S. and global equity markets, with room for diversified, concentrated, and dynamic implementations.     ### Familiar Roles.  New Architecture.   Low volatility, core equity, and momentum are familiar portfolio roles. CrestCast changes the construction underneath them. Our regime research produced two complementary building blocks: a **Growth** sleeve designed around characteristics rewarded in Durable markets, and a **Stability** sleeve designed to remain resilient when conditions become Fragile. Blend the two differently and the portfolio role changes — without changing the underlying architecture.   **Built in:** the regime intelligence lives inside the sleeves. Hold them at any fixed weight and the portfolio carries that structure with no signal, no rotation, and no timing required. **Dynamic:** the same architecture can also support concentrated or regime-responsive implementations when a partner wants a more active expression.   CrestCast™ targets macro regimes that are: ![Vector-1](https://intervallumtech.com/hs-fs/hubfs/website/icons/Vector-1.png?width=21&height=28&name=Vector-1.png) Low-Vol+ Stability is the foundation. **Growth is the +.** The objective is to preserve defensive character while improving participation. ![Vector-2](https://intervallumtech.com/hs-fs/hubfs/website/icons/Vector-2.png?width=23&height=21&name=Vector-2.png) Core+ Growth and Stability meet near the middle. **Asymmetric Capture is the +.** The objective is a more balanced participation profile than conventional core equity.  ![Vector-3](https://intervallumtech.com/hs-fs/hubfs/website/icons/Vector-3.png?width=21&height=22&name=Vector-3.png) Momentum+ Growth is the foundation. **Stability is the +.** The objective is to preserve return-seeking character while moderating downside participation. Why Regime-Informed Construction? ## Markets change character. Factor leadership changes with them. Equity markets do not reward the same characteristics in every environment. Our research identifies persistent **Durable** and **Fragile** regimes and measures how factor behavior changes between them. CrestCast uses that information structurally — not to predict the next market move, but to design two complementary sleeves that can be held together through time. ![Vector-4](https://intervallumtech.com/hs-fs/hubfs/website/icons/Vector-4.png?width=30&height=33&name=Vector-4.png) #### Persistent Market Regimes CrestCast classifies market environments using macroeconomic and market indicators, distinguishing persistent **Durable** and **Fragile** conditions rather than relying on backward-looking cycle labels. ![Vector-Jul-08-2025-08-24-45-0380-AM](https://intervallumtech.com/hs-fs/hubfs/website/icons/Vector-Jul-08-2025-08-24-45-0380-AM.png?width=30&height=22&name=Vector-Jul-08-2025-08-24-45-0380-AM.png) #### Growth Built for Durable Markets The Growth sleeve emphasizes characteristics that historically strengthen when conditions are Durable — including momentum, quality, and smaller-cap exposure. It is designed to participate aggressively when the market environment rewards risk-taking. ![Vector-Jul-08-2025-08-25-41-0978-AM](https://intervallumtech.com/hs-fs/hubfs/website/icons/Vector-Jul-08-2025-08-25-41-0978-AM.png?width=30&height=31&name=Vector-Jul-08-2025-08-25-41-0978-AM.png) #### Stability Built to Hold Its Character The Stability sleeve emphasizes lower-beta, defensive characteristics that remain comparatively resilient when conditions become Fragile. Its role is not to predict downturns. It is to provide a complementary source of equity exposure that behaves differently from Growth. ![Vector-Jul-08-2025-08-26-21-2136-AM](https://intervallumtech.com/hs-fs/hubfs/website/icons/Vector-Jul-08-2025-08-26-21-2136-AM.png?width=30&height=21&name=Vector-Jul-08-2025-08-26-21-2136-AM.png) #### **Complementary by Design** Growth and Stability are intentionally different. Their lower correlation reduces portfolio volatility, allowing the Growth sleeve to contribute more fully without requiring the portfolio to abandon equity exposure. The result is the mechanism behind the CrestCast capture frontier: **diversification between the sleeves, not market timing.** ![Vector-Jul-08-2025-08-28-32-9336-AM](https://intervallumtech.com/hs-fs/hubfs/website/icons/Vector-Jul-08-2025-08-28-32-9336-AM.png?width=22&height=30&name=Vector-Jul-08-2025-08-28-32-9336-AM.png) #### **One Engine. Multiple Expressions.** The same regime research can support **Low-Vol+**, **Core+**, and **Momentum+** portfolios through different fixed sleeve weights. Partners can also use the architecture in concentrated or dynamic implementations where the product objective calls for them. ![Union](https://intervallumtech.com/hs-fs/hubfs/website/images/Union.png?width=43&height=53&name=Union.png)  ### One Engine. ### Multiple Use Cases.   CrestCast® regime intelligence can live **inside the portfolio** or operate **alongside it**. In **Low-Vol+™, Core+™, and Momentum+™**, the regime research is embedded directly in the Growth and Stability sleeves. Hold the chosen blend through time — no signal, no rotation, no market-timing decision required. For partners building dynamic strategies, the same engine can also publish a **monthly Durable / Fragile regime read** to inform downstream allocations, concentrated implementations, or proprietary models. **Same research. Same sleeves. Different implementation.** ### Built to Generalize. CrestCast was built with a core belief:  generalization beats backtest beauty, every time.  The model was developed using walk-forward validation, peer-reviewed methodology, and a strict separation between development and evaluation datasets — ensuring the regime engine reflects the real behavior of macro signals, not a curated hindsight. **Walk-Forward Validation** Overfit models carry a signature: strong where the model could see the data, weaker where it couldn't. CrestCast's record shows the reverse — character amplifies in out-of-sample years. **Never Re-optimized** The classification process was frozen on data through 2013 and has never been tuned to what came after. Later history enters only through governed, embargoed retraining. **Peer-Reviewed Foundation** The research behind CrestCast is published in the [Journal of Financial Data Science (2025)](https://eprints.pm-research.com/17511/133226/index.html?45810). ## Explore CrestCast: Purpose & Proof ![Vector-Jul-08-2025-08-28-32-9336-AM](https://intervallumtech.com/hs-fs/hubfs/website/icons/Vector-Jul-08-2025-08-28-32-9336-AM.png?width=28&height=39&name=Vector-Jul-08-2025-08-28-32-9336-AM.png "Vector-Jul-08-2025-08-28-32-9336-AM") ### Methodology Full review of methodology, from KNN-based classification through walk-forward cross-validation, with detailed analytics and performance analysis published in the Journal of Financial Data Science. [Read our Published Paper](https://eprints.pm-research.com/17511/133226/index.html?45810) ![Vector-Jul-08-2025-08-27-54-4068-AM](https://intervallumtech.com/hs-fs/hubfs/website/icons/Vector-Jul-08-2025-08-27-54-4068-AM.png?width=46&height=40&name=Vector-Jul-08-2025-08-27-54-4068-AM.png "Vector-Jul-08-2025-08-27-54-4068-AM") ### The Regime Signal, Documented The Macro-Aware Index's rotation record, measured against the benchmark across the out-of-sample period. The rotation is maximal to make the regime effect measurable. ## Insights & Validation Press Interviews Articles #### [![Partnerships 1](https://intervallumtech.com/hs-fs/hubfs/website/images/Partnerships%201.webp?width=1500&height=1125&name=Partnerships%201.webp) BX Partnership Big news! Our first press release detailing our major distribution partnership with BX Partners. ](https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7388964875458457600) #### [![Interview 1](https://intervallumtech.com/hs-fs/hubfs/website/images/Interview%201.webp?width=1500&height=1125&name=Interview%201.webp) Swift Chat Marie Swift of Impact Communications and Alan talk advanced analytics and the next evolution in fiduciary asset management.  ](https://www.linkedin.com/posts/impactcommunications_swiftchat-fiduciaries-directindexing-activity-7386439118542557184-DTaS?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop&rcm=ACoAAAAx7hUBFdxFD4B56_312eQdDWNaFBm6TOo) #### [![Internal Articles 3](https://intervallumtech.com/hs-fs/hubfs/website/images/Internal%20Articles%203.webp?width=1500&height=1125&name=Internal%20Articles%203.webp) Where's the Free-Lunch? Advisorpedia published this thought piece on the importance of understand the macro-environment for a more robust view of diversfication. This link will take you to the Ad](https://www.advisorpedia.com/future-of-advice/rethinking-diversification-why-the-next-evolution-is-macro-aware/) #### [![Internal Articles 1](https://intervallumtech.com/hs-fs/hubfs/website/images/Internal%20Articles%201.webp?width=1500&height=1125&name=Internal%20Articles%201.webp) Black Box or Advanced Intuition? This article speaks to the difference between black box models and models that use advanced analytics to see old truths in new ways.  ](https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7355976635101106179) #### [![Interview 1](https://intervallumtech.com/hs-fs/hubfs/website/images/Interview%201.webp?width=1500&height=1125&name=Interview%201.webp) Industry Interview Chris Latham interviews Alan on CrestCast, advanced analytics and dynamic factor investing.  ](https://www.linkedin.com/posts/chris-latham_alan-thomson-founder-chief-architect-of-ugcPost-7387481735384502272-IgjN?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop&rcm=ACoAAAAx7hUBFdxFD4B56_312eQdDWNaFBm6TOo) #### [![Key Brand Moments 3](https://intervallumtech.com/hs-fs/hubfs/website/images/Key%20Brand%20Moments%203.webp?width=1500&height=1125&name=Key%20Brand%20Moments%203.webp) Confidence in Modeling In this post, Alan writes about the danger of overconfidence in cards and financial modeling.  Sometimes reducing the need for precision helps at the table and in the world of machine learning.  ](https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7358624037855457280) #### [![Passive 3.0](https://intervallumtech.com/hs-fs/hubfs/website/images/Partnerships%201.webp?width=1500&height=1125&name=Partnerships%201.webp) **The Product Kitchen**  Two regime-informed sleeves — a growth sleeve and a stability sleeve — and the countless products a firm can build from them. Our new paper on why the sleeves are ingredients, not a strategy.](https://www.linkedin.com/posts/adthomson_im-a-bit-biased-but-if-youre-a-head-ugcPost-7481780808010117120-uJJt/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop&rcm=ACoAAAAx7hUBFdxFD4B56_312eQdDWNaFBm6TOo) ## **Licensing CrestCast®** ## **Architecture Becomes a Product** **ETF Sponsors** License the Durable and Fragile sleeves as clean building blocks — two published, independently calculated indexes with a peer-reviewed foundation and a live record. Wrap one, wrap both, or launch a fixed blend under your brand.   **Direct Index & SMA Platforms** Blend the sleeves at any fixed weight to hit any risk budget — fully rules-based, with personalization and tax management preserved. The regime awareness is in the holdings, not in trading.   RIAs & Model Portfolio Managers Build regime-aware models downstream, implemented through the sleeve-based vehicles — from fixed blends across client risk tiers to dynamic allocations guided by the monthly regime read and portfolio use case. **TAMPs** One license, the full menu: sleeve blends for model portfolios today, regime-guided implementations as your platform grows — deployed across ETFs, models, and discretionary accounts. ## Key Partner Benefits Differentiation without Reinvention Add an axis of diversification your competitors don't offer — regime-informed building blocks that slot beside your existing lineup rather than replacing it. Resilience where it Counts In prolonged drawdowns — where most compounding is lost — the blend's market beta steps down structurally, with no trading. We document where that defense operates and where it doesn't; the honesty is part of the product. **Scalable Integration** One integration supports the whole menu — sleeve indexes for wrappers, blends for models, and the monthly regime read for dynamic implementations — across every channel on your platform. **Evidence-based Communication** A monthly regime report gives advisors and committees a clear, repeatable narrative — anchored in a published, never-revised record rather than opinion. ### There's room to build. Let's talk. [Schedule a Discovery Call](https://intervallumtech.com/meeting?hsLang=en) **Disclaimer** Intervallum Technologies, LLC develops and licenses systematic investment methodologies, indexes, portfolio frameworks, and related analytical research. Intervallum is not a registered investment adviser, broker-dealer, or fund sponsor and does not provide individualized investment advice or recommendations. CrestCast® indexes, model portfolios, and other referenced methodologies are rules-based or model-driven investment constructs intended for use by financial institutions, product sponsors, advisers, and other professional market participants. An index is not a security and cannot be invested in directly. References to potential ETFs, funds, model portfolios, or other investment products describe possible implementations of CrestCast methodologies and do not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to purchase any security. Historical results may include backtested, simulated, or hypothetical performance. Such results do not represent the performance of an actual investment account and are subject to important limitations, including the use of assumptions and the benefit of hindsight inherent in historical analysis. Past performance, whether actual or simulated, is not indicative of future results. No representation is made that any investment product or implementation will achieve results comparable to those shown or achieve any particular investment objective. Information and data presented on this website are believed to be obtained from sources considered reliable, but Intervallum makes no representation or warranty as to their accuracy, completeness, or timeliness. Methodologies, data, calculations, index constituents, and other information may change or be revised from time to time. Nothing on this website constitutes investment, legal, tax, accounting, or other professional advice, nor should any content be construed as a recommendation regarding any security, investment strategy, or financial product. Investment products based on CrestCast methodologies may involve risk, including possible loss of principal. Investors should review the applicable offering documents and consult their own professional advisers before making any investment decision.    © 2025 IntervallumTechnologies, LLC All rights reserved. [Privacy Policy](https://intervallumtech.com/privacy?hsLang=en) | [Terms of Services](https://intervallumtech.com/terms-of-service?hsLang=en)  © 2025 Intervallum. All rights reserved. Privacy Policy | Terms of Services | Cookie Settings