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Introducing CrestCast® 

Low-Vol+ · Core+ · Momentum+

One Architecture

CrestCast combines two independently designed, regime-informed building blocks — Growth and Stability — to create a continuous range of equity portfolios. Blend them differently and the same architecture can power three familiar portfolio roles: Low-Vol+, Core+, and Momentum+.

Built for ETF productization across U.S. and global equity markets, with room for diversified, concentrated, and dynamic implementations.

 
 

Familiar Roles. 
New Architecture.  

Low volatility, core equity, and momentum are familiar portfolio roles. CrestCast changes the construction underneath them.

Our regime research produced two complementary building blocks: a Growth sleeve designed around characteristics rewarded in Durable markets, and a Stability sleeve designed to remain resilient when conditions become Fragile.

Blend the two differently and the portfolio role changes — without changing the underlying architecture.

 

Built in: the regime intelligence lives inside the sleeves. Hold them at any fixed weight and the portfolio carries that structure with no signal, no rotation, and no timing required.

Dynamic: the same architecture can also support concentrated or regime-responsive implementations when a partner wants a more active expression.

 

CrestCast™ targets macro regimes that are:
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Low-Vol+
Stability is the foundation. Growth is the +.
The objective is to preserve defensive character while improving participation.
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Core+
Growth and Stability meet near the middle. Asymmetric Capture is the +. The objective is a more balanced participation profile than conventional core equity. 
Vector-3
Momentum+
Growth is the foundation. Stability is the +.
The objective is to preserve return-seeking character while moderating downside participation.

Why Regime-Informed Construction?

Markets change character.
Factor leadership changes with them.

Equity markets do not reward the same characteristics in every environment. Our research identifies persistent Durable and Fragile regimes and measures how factor behavior changes between them.

CrestCast uses that information structurally — not to predict the next market move, but to design two complementary sleeves that can be held together through time.

Vector-4

Persistent Market Regimes

CrestCast classifies market environments using macroeconomic and market indicators, distinguishing persistent Durable and Fragile conditions rather than relying on backward-looking cycle labels.
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Growth Built for Durable Markets

The Growth sleeve emphasizes characteristics that historically strengthen when conditions are Durable — including momentum, quality, and smaller-cap exposure.

It is designed to participate aggressively when the market environment rewards risk-taking.

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Stability Built to Hold Its Character

The Stability sleeve emphasizes lower-beta, defensive characteristics that remain comparatively resilient when conditions become Fragile.

Its role is not to predict downturns. It is to provide a complementary source of equity exposure that behaves differently from Growth.

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Complementary by Design

Growth and Stability are intentionally different. Their lower correlation reduces portfolio volatility, allowing the Growth sleeve to contribute more fully without requiring the portfolio to abandon equity exposure.

The result is the mechanism behind the CrestCast capture frontier: diversification between the sleeves, not market timing.

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One Engine. Multiple Expressions.

The same regime research can support Low-Vol+, Core+, and Momentum+ portfolios through different fixed sleeve weights.

Partners can also use the architecture in concentrated or dynamic implementations where the product objective calls for them.

Union 

One Engine.

Multiple Use Cases.

 

CrestCast® regime intelligence can live inside the portfolio or operate alongside it.

In Low-Vol+™, Core+™, and Momentum+™, the regime research is embedded directly in the Growth and Stability sleeves. Hold the chosen blend through time — no signal, no rotation, no market-timing decision required.

For partners building dynamic strategies, the same engine can also publish a monthly Durable / Fragile regime read to inform downstream allocations, concentrated implementations, or proprietary models.

Same research. Same sleeves. Different implementation.


Built to Generalize.


CrestCast was built with a core belief:  generalization beats backtest beauty, every time.  The model was developed using walk-forward validation, peer-reviewed methodology, and a strict separation between development and evaluation datasets — ensuring the regime engine reflects the real behavior of macro signals, not a curated hindsight.

Walk-Forward Validation
Overfit models carry a signature: strong where the model could see the data, weaker where it couldn't. CrestCast's record shows the reverse — character amplifies in out-of-sample years.
Never Re-optimized
The classification process was frozen on data through 2013 and has never been tuned to what came after. Later history enters only through governed, embargoed retraining.
Peer-Reviewed Foundation
The research behind CrestCast is published in the Journal of Financial Data Science (2025).

Explore CrestCast: Purpose & Proof

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Methodology

Full review of methodology, from KNN-based classification through walk-forward cross-validation, with detailed analytics and performance analysis published in the Journal of Financial Data Science.

Read our Published Paper
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The Regime Signal, Documented

The Macro-Aware Index's rotation record, measured against the benchmark across the out-of-sample period. The rotation is maximal to make the regime effect measurable.

Insights & Validation

Press Interviews Articles

Partnerships 1

BX Partnership

Big news! Our first press release detailing our major distribution partnership with BX Partners. 
Interview 1

Swift Chat

Marie Swift of Impact Communications and Alan talk advanced analytics and the next evolution in fiduciary asset management.  
Internal Articles 3

Where's the Free-Lunch?

Advisorpedia published this thought piece on the importance of understand the macro-environment for a more robust view of diversfication. This link will take you to the Ad
Internal Articles 1

Black Box or Advanced Intuition?

This article speaks to the difference between black box models and models that use advanced analytics to see old truths in new ways.  

 
Interview 1

Industry Interview

Chris Latham interviews Alan on CrestCast, advanced analytics and dynamic factor investing.  
Key Brand Moments 3

Confidence in Modeling

In this post, Alan writes about the danger of overconfidence in cards and financial modeling.  Sometimes reducing the need for precision helps at the table and in the world of machine learning.  
Passive 3.0

The Product Kitchen

 Two regime-informed sleeves — a growth sleeve and a stability sleeve — and the countless products a firm can build from them. Our new paper on why the sleeves are ingredients, not a strategy.

Licensing CrestCast®

Architecture Becomes a Product

ETF Sponsors
License the Durable and Fragile sleeves as clean building blocks — two published, independently calculated indexes with a peer-reviewed foundation and a live record. Wrap one, wrap both, or launch a fixed blend under your brand.
 
Direct Index & SMA Platforms
Blend the sleeves at any fixed weight to hit any risk budget — fully rules-based, with personalization and tax management preserved. The regime awareness is in the holdings, not in trading.
 

RIAs & Model Portfolio Managers
Build regime-aware models downstream, implemented through the sleeve-based vehicles — from fixed blends across client risk tiers to dynamic allocations guided by the monthly regime read and portfolio use case.

TAMPs
One license, the full menu: sleeve blends for model portfolios today, regime-guided implementations as your platform grows — deployed across ETFs, models, and discretionary accounts.

Key Partner Benefits

Differentiation without Reinvention
Add an axis of diversification your competitors don't offer — regime-informed building blocks that slot beside your existing lineup rather than replacing it.

Resilience where it Counts
In prolonged drawdowns — where most compounding is lost — the blend's market beta steps down structurally, with no trading. We document where that defense operates and where it doesn't; the honesty is part of the product.

Scalable Integration
One integration supports the whole menu — sleeve indexes for wrappers, blends for models, and the monthly regime read for dynamic implementations — across every channel on your platform.

Evidence-based Communication
A monthly regime report gives advisors and committees a clear, repeatable narrative — anchored in a published, never-revised record rather than opinion.

There's room to build. Let's talk.

Schedule a Discovery Call